FROM a hilltop overlooking Knighton he speaks of the end of the world, neither street preacher nor subway prophet but scientist. And with Armageddon nigh it will be the likes of Jay Tate in the frontline, not a 'Bruce Willis'.

This Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society is something of a trailblazer on asteroids and comets, having long talked up the threat each poses to earth; only to see such scenarios swallowed up by bureaucratic 'black holes'.

So he went DIY with his Doomsday warning, scanning skies at the former Powys County Observatory - now home to Spaceguard UK.

Ironically, its January 1 opening date was only just ahead of Government announcing its own centre for the study of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) at Leicester. Jay does not see this as competition.

Official indifference

Having endured official indifference for so long, he's passionate about NEOs to the point of welcoming any initiative that raises awareness.

Amid this new mood Jay has one key advantage. Where contractual obligation stifles comment coming out of the Government centre, Spaceguard, as a private concern, is free to comment on any NEO issues.

CAIN makes it able, an acronym for Jay's Comet and Asteroid Information Network exchanging intelligence between NEO specialists everywhere.

Natural science has been undergoing a revolution in thinking, akin only to that occurring after Darwin published 'Origin of the Species'.

"There is no reason to believe that this extraterrestrial influence is at an end - the possibility that a major impact could severely disrupt, or even destroy our way of life on a global scale is one to be considered seriously."

When Jay founded Spaceguard, even global scientific support from such names as Dr Arthur C Clarke, Dr Gene Shoemaker and Professor Edward Teller, couldn't convince 'earthly powers'.

The Ministry of Defence rebuffed an initial proposal for a national NEO centre, while the Department of Trade and Industry took three years to say further study might be appropriate.

Like minds, though, continued to lobby debate in both the Lords and Commons, their persistence paid off with a parliamentary task force, to which Jay was an advisor.

Out of their report came confirmation of the Government's own NEO facility due to come on line at Easter. He had been among the bidders but will carry on his work at Knighton. A private observatory opened outside the town in 1995 was bought by one of Spaceguard's key contributors.

In theory, said Jay, the technology to deflect an asteroid exists.

"You don't have to push it out of the way with one Titanic bang - you can do it incrementally. We have the explosive device and the delivery system (the NASA probe that landed on the EROS asteroid last year).

He added: "We'll never be able to say it will definitely hit until probably the last month or two. It will then be a political decision as to what level of probability requires action."

But the sixth extinction might come from something closer than a comet, an ecological crisis. Who's watching?

bill.tanner@newsquestmidlands.co.uk