HEREFORDSHIRE can expect a record 17 per cent council tax rise next month. County treasurer Ian Hyson says an increase that has the average (Band D) bill at around £950 is a 'reasonable assumption'.

But that sum won't bring better services - it will simply maintain last year's level. The council says that's as good as it gets without pitching a percentage rise in the twenties.

Herefordshire Council already has a special budget panel scrutinising services for further savings. If councillors reject a double figure rise when they meet to set the rate on March 7 then schools, roads and leisure could be the biggest losers.

Small print in the £169.5 million spending assessment Government has given Herefordshire Council shows initial estimates of a six to eight per cent increase were nowhere near the mark.

The council's treasury team has upped that estimate to 17 per cent before precept - and cabinet agrees.

So it is a 'reasonable assumption' that cabinet will recommend 17 per cent, or somewhere close, to full council next month, says Mr Hyson.

"There is a reluctant acceptance of the reality."

Three-quarters of all council funding comes out of Whitehall, and many authorities, Herefordshire included, are actively arguing that what they get is not enough.

At face value, the county has an extra £25 million to spend on services over 2003/2004, around £107 million of that is available as spending support grants with Council Tax making up much of the difference.

But this has to be set against an increase in the level of Council Tax the government assesses as reasonable for Herefordshire Council to charge - £948 at Band D. Where this figure goes up, sums the council can claim as financial support come down.

With the transfer of specific grants to mainstream funding channels taken into account what seems a substantial extra is more sleight of handout than the sum of its parts.

Late last year the council set up a budget panel to scrutinise services for savings with a six to eight per cent Council Tax rise in mind. Now its remit has entered double figures, the only increase that the treasury, working to Whitehall formula, says can keep services as they are - let alone allow for improvements.

The alternative sees spending on roads and leisure facilities in particular slashed. Not even education would be exempt according to worst case scenarios at council HQ. Only social services and care can realistically anticipate added investment as a priority.

n Editorial comment on Page 17.