FOR the first time in the 17 years of Herefordshire Council so far, a majority of wards  up for election have real potential to deliver “surprise” returns.

On the evidence of the past five years, the electorate is more open to the consideration of alternatives.

Stakes are raised with ward changes that slim the council down to 53 councillors elected on a one ward, one member basis.

A number of candidates, of all persuasions, are new faces.

So it’s the nature of those “surprises” that now taxes the minds of respective campaign managers where initial indications strongly suggest a council headed for coalition.

Given the spread of group and party representation in the list of 2015 candidates, and projected voter returns based on patterns in the previous election and subsequent by-elections, then, even with newcomers UKIP as the variable, there are statistical limitations on any party or group looking to take an outright majority free from a combined opposition challenge.

The more likely prospect – on present numbers – is a negotiated power-share.

In purely political terms, this is a council election unlike any other the county has seen in recent times.

Few wards can be casually taken for granted and every ward has bargaining value towards “seats at the table”.

Here’s a sample of wards to watch when it all comes to a head at Hereford Leisure Centre and a count over Friday, May 8.

Birch:

In November 2013, Jon Norris pulled off a groundbreaking by-election win for It's Our County (IOC) in the former Pontrilas ward.

Now he needs to defend - or extend - a 168 majority in an amended ward on a turn-out sure to be stronger than the 32.9 per cent last time around.

The Birch result will define the extent to which IOC has penetrated rural voting patterns, and whether that penetration has the potential for permanence.

The Tories really need David Harlow to deliver a “rally round” win having finished a soul-crushing third defending that Pontrilas by-election.

And Independent Elaine Godding, who pushed the Tories down then, is having another go.

Castle:

Given their record on candidate returns, it’s easy to take wards like Castle for granted.

But here, the synonymous John Hope has stepped down leaving a 353 Tory majority for Clive Skelton to defend.

Independent Stephen Grist ate into that majority last time taking 512 votes, enough to tempt him into another go.

With IOC’s Dave McAndrew in the mix, Castle becomes a bellwether win for whoever takes it.

Ledbury North:

IOC can ill-afford to lose deputy leader - and Tory tormentor - Liz Harvey.

Tories would toast Phill Bettington to the rafters of Hereford Leisure Centre if he can win what is a head-to-head fight between two councillors on opposite sides of the last administration.

With the strategic ramifications obvious, this one, at its most base,  is about bragging rights.

Leominster East, Leominster South,  Leominster West, Leominster North & Rural:

This morning (Wed) the Greens secured what is - at least at face value - a majority on Leominster Town Council, the elections for which won’t be contested.

In these four seats there’s the potential for them to make an impact at county level.

Two of these seats turned Green over the last administration.

There’s every indication that the two can be retained, with the real possibility of a third being won.

And a fourth?

Given who they are up against, it would be one of the county’s biggest political shocks.

Newton Farm:

 This one’s bubbling given the “differences” between the two contenders - Independent Phil Edwards and Glenda Powell billed as unattached.

 Both of them were on the last council, boundary changes now butt them up against each other.

Is there, then, enough space for a Tory, Lib Dem or IOC alternative to squeeze through?

Saxon Gate:

On the assumption that IOC can hold what it has in Hereford city, this new and demographically wide-ranging ward represents both a big chance for a bonus win and a real test of credentials.

Should IOC lose any of the city wards it is defending, a win here is a strategic necessity.

Widemarsh:

 Another new ward offering a similar scenario to Saxon Gate as a test of electoral confidence in IOC.