Council’s figures ‘are right’

12:38pm Thursday 24th April 2008

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WITHDRAWN council plans to close or merge 37 county schools were based on accurate forecasts.

A predicted fall in pupil numbers has been confirmed by independent statistician Dr Peter Boden.

The findings are part of the Boden Report, an independent study examining future population trends in Herefordshire.

Herefordshire Council appointed Mr Boden to check the methodology behind the LEA’s draft schools review.

The council wanted independent reassurance that its 2026 population forecasts were correct and that the number of school-aged children would decline.

Dr Boden, a visiting research fellow at the University of Leeds, released his findings last week.

His findings – which can be seen at herefordshire.gov.uk – forecast a continual decline over the next 10 years, with the number of primary school-age children decreasing by between 7% and 8% between 2006 and 2011.

The findings were based on fertility rates, migration, mortality rates and potential housing developments.

Councillors and school governors will discuss the findings at two meetings on Monday.

Councillor Roger Phillips, leader of Herefordshire Council, welcomed the findings and said the council would share any information widely with schools and communities over the coming months.

“We hope to be able to generate an awareness of the issues we face together at county level and discuss how we can refine our information for future planning,” he said.

“Once a shared understanding has been developed about the county-wide forecasts, we will work with clusters of schools to improve our mutual knowledge of local issues and projections at a district level.” The council this week again issued a promise to keep all schools open throughout its current administration, which ends in May, 2011.