2:19pm Friday 18th April 2008
By Ian Morris
AN independent statistician appointed to look at the county’s pupil projections has confirmed that the number of school-aged children in Herefordshire is likely to continue to decline over the next 10 years.
The Boden reports published this week confirm that 2026 population forecasts for the county, also published this week, are sound. It also says that the methodology used to project pupil numbers by the council is in line with that used by many other local authorities in the UK and follows much of the best practice recommended by government, but that it could be made even more robust. Dr Peter Boden, visiting research fellow at the University of Leeds and a member of the British Society for Population Studies, was appointed by Herefordshire Council to check the methodology used to predict the county’s future school pupil numbers and to provide the 2026 population forecasts with independent assurance. His findings are published in three detailed reports which are available on the council’s web site, together with an executive summary at www.herefordshire.gov.uk.
He notes that the number of pupils has fallen significantly over recent years and agrees that, in line with population forecasts for 2026 published this week, Herefordshire is likely to experience a continuing decline of school-age children over the coming years. The population forecasts show the number of primary school-age children declining by a further seven to eight percent between 2006 and 2011, after which numbers are likely to stabilise at around this lower level. For secondary-school-age children they show a fall of a further 17 percent to 2018, again before stabilising at that level.
Dr Boden assessed a range of factors in concluding that the population forecasts are sound, including fertility rates, migration, mortality rates and potential housing developments. Since Dr Boden was appointed, the council has withdrawn the school proposals and made a commitment not to close or undertake major reorganisations of high schools during the current administration, which is until May 2011. The council also reaffirmed that no primary schools will close outside of the county’s existing Small Schools Policy, which is available on the council’s web site.
Councillor Roger Phillips, leader of Herefordshire Council, said: “ We will share this information widely with schools and communities over the forthcoming months.
“We hope to be able to generate an awareness of the issues we face together at county level and discuss how we can refine our information for future planning.
“The council has made a commitment not to close schools during the current administration, although reduced pupil numbers will mean less cash for schools. "The council is therefore committed to work with schools and communities to help them remain viable and provide good quality education for our children.
“Once a shared understanding has been developed about the county-wide forecasts, we will work with clusters of schools to improve our mutual knowledge of local issues and projections at a district level. "We want to encourage schools to work together creatively and with us to ensure that Herefordshire continues to have education of the highest possible standard.”
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